Naas 13:22 — Value Analysis

Saturday 4 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GD 5.0f Class 0 8 runners
🏁 Result: Concorde Landed won (SP 2.62)
Model's most likely SHI YANG 33% model chance · market 13%
★ Best value SHI YANG model 33% vs market 13% · +148%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: CONCORDE LANDED is the market favourite (2.5) but the model rates it only 10% vs the market's 40% — it may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

Concorde Landed (13/8) was simply too strong for these, winning comfortably, by 5 lengths. Snowing (7/4) filled second. Our model's top pick SHI YANG (33%) finished 4th.

Why the model rates SHI YANG top (33% chance)
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✓ Jockey riding well - 15% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Yard readies first-timers - 12% with debutants
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Form figures leave him plenty to find

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SHI YANG ★ Top Rated
J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Robson De Aguiar
33%
13%
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +148% 4th
2
CONCORDE LANDED
J: W J Lee · T: P Twomey
10%
40%
2.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -76% Winner
3
FLY SMARTLY
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Robson De Aguiar
8%
6%
17.0
 +43% 3rd
4
MY IRISH LADY
J: Ben Coen · T: J P Murtagh
8%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +13% 6th
5
SNOWING
J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: A P O'Brien
7%
36%
2.8
▲ Edge increasing
 -81% 2nd
6
SOUTHERN BOULEVARD
J: Gary Carroll · T: G M Lyons
7%
11%
9.0
 -39% 5th
7
WOODLAWN LILY
J: Jamie Powell · T: J P Murtagh
6%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +111% 7th
—
ARIZONANEARGALWAY NR
J: Chris Hayes · T: Denis Gerard Hogan
5%
—
—
 — Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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