Newmarket July 13:30 — Value Analysis

Saturday 4 July 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GTF 5.0f Class 4 8 runners
🏁 Result: Quantum Power won (SP 4.5)
Model's most likely DESERT TREASURE 20% model chance · market 18%
★ Best value DESERT TREASURE model 20% vs market 18% · +8%
How the race unfolded

Quantum Power (7/2) had the answers when it counted. Wedonttelllies (6/1) filled second. Mighty Magnus, the 15/8 favourite, could manage only 3rd. Our model's top pick DESERT TREASURE (20%) finished 7th.

Why the model rates DESERT TREASURE top (20% chance)
  • ✓ Yard in form - 22% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Well suited by today's ground
  • ✓ Has won over this trip before
  • ✕ Less consistent than the best of these
  • ✕ Unproven at this level

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
DESERT TREASURE ★ Top Rated
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas
20%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +8% 7th
2
PERCYS STAR
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Chris Dwyer
15%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -1% 6th
3
QUANTUM POWER
J: Jack Callan(3) · T: Tom Clover
11%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -33% Winner
4
WEDONTTELLLIES
J: Hector Crouch · T: Richard Hughes
10%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -37% 2nd
5
KOLKATA KNIGHT
J: William Cox · T: Tom Dascombe
8%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +63% 4th
6
MIGHTY MAGNUS
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Michael Dods
7%
31%
3.2
▼ Edge decreasing
 -77% 3rd
7
AMBISHIO
J: Robert Havlin · T: Michael Appleby
5%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -35% 5th
8
ZELAINA
J: Faleh Bughenaim · T: K R Burke
4%
7%
15.0
 -36% 8th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org