Sandown 13:50 — Value Analysis

Saturday 4 July 2026 · result below

Group 3 GD 5.0f Class 1 10 runners
🏁 Result: Rumstar won (SP 4.33)
Model's most likely GOLD DIGGER 11% model chance · market 6%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Rumstar (10/3) ran out the winner, winning by a length. Luna A Inbhir Nis (18/1) filled second. The exchange briefly made Partisan Hero the likely winner mid-race (matched at 3.50 from 16.5 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Asfoora, the 9/4 favourite, could manage only 9th.

Why the model rates GOLD DIGGER top (11% chance)
  • ✓ Today's trip looks ideal
  • ✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
  • ✓ This jockey-trainer pairing wins 26% together
  • ✕ Unproven at this level
  • ✕ Less consistent than the best of these

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
—
WORDS OF TRUTH NR
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Charlie Appleby
18%
—
—
 — Withdrawn
1
GOLD DIGGER ★ Top Rated
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer
11%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +95% 6th
2
ASFOORA
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Henry Dwyer
10%
29%
3.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -65% 9th
3
PARTISAN HERO
J: Colin Keane · T: David Loughnane
8%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +10% 3rd
4
GETREADYTORUMBLE
J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Jack Channon
7%
11%
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -36% 4th
5
LUNA A INBHIR NIS
J: Ray Dawson · T: Katie Scott
6%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +6% 2nd
6
RUMSTAR
J: Rob Hornby · T: Jonathan Portman
5%
27%
3.8
 -80% Winner
7
SHAGRAAN
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Clive Cox
5%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -79% 7th
8
PALMEIRA
J: Charles Bishop · T: Eve Johnson Houghton
4%
2%
51.0
 +105% 8th
9
LEOVANNI
J: James Doyle · T: K R Burke
3%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -41% 5th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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