Ayr 14:11 — Value Analysis

Sunday 5 July 2026 · result below

Amateur GD 5.0f Class 5 7 runners

🏁 Result: Who Wants Me won (SP 4.0)

Model's most likely WHO WANTS ME 33% model chance · market 25%

★ Best value WHO WANTS ME model 33% vs market 25% · +33%

How the race unfolded

Who Wants Me (3/1) ran out the winner, winning by 2.2 lengths. Woohoo (7/2) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Woohoo the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.59 from 5.1 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our Absent Friends, the 5/2 favourite, could manage only 7th. Our model made him its top pick at 33%.

Why the model rates WHO WANTS ME top (33% chance)

✓ Yard readies first-timers - 7% with debutants
✓ Race-fit - out just 11 days ago
✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs
✕ Less consistent than the best of these

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	WHO WANTS ME ★ Top Rated J: Mr Lucas Murphy(5) · T: Iain Jardine	33%	25%	4.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+33%	Winner
2	MARAJITO J: Mr Thomas Easterby(3) · T: Tim Easterby	20%	9%	11.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	+128%	5th
3	MIDNIGHT LIR J: Mr Matt Brown(3) · T: Michael Dods	12%	12%	8.5	+3%	4th
4	WOOHOO J: Miss Kayleigh Williams(5) · T: Jim Goldie	11%	23%	4.3 ▲ Edge increasing	-51%	2nd
5	OUR ABSENT FRIENDS J: Miss Amy Collier · T: Tristan Davidson	7%	23%	4.3 ▼ Edge decreasing	-71%	7th
6	WATER OF LEITH J: Mr Eireann Cagney · T: Jim Goldie	6%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-66%	3rd
7	NEVER DARK J: Mr Freddie Robson(5) · T: Iain Jardine	5%	4%	23.0	+12%	6th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org