Southwell 14:02 — Value Analysis

Sunday 5 July 2026 · result below

Other Handicap STD 8.0f Class 5 14 runners

🏁 Result: Kalokalo won (SP 4.0)

Model's most likely LIGHTNING GLORY 14% model chance · market 12%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

How the race unfolded

Kalokalo (3/1) came out on top, winning by 2.2 lengths. Lightning Glory (7/1) filled second. The exchange briefly made Lightning Glory the likely winner mid-race (matched at 2.02 from 10.0 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model's top pick LIGHTNING GLORY (14%) finished 2nd.

Why the model rates LIGHTNING GLORY top (14% chance)

✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
✓ Has run well in better company than today's
✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
✕ Trip is a question mark
✕ Little to like about its run two runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	LIGHTNING GLORY ★ Top Rated J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Simon & Ed Crisford	14%	12%	8.0	+15%	2nd
2	ALPINE CULTURE J: Oisin Orr · T: James Owen	11%	15%	6.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-31%	11th
3	CONSTANT STAR J: Jack Callan(3) · T: Tom Clover	9%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+221%	5th
4	PEPSEA J: Oliver Stammers · T: Grant Tuer	9%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+155%	14th
5	SOVEREIGN BAY J: Jack Doughty · T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	8%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+70%	13th
6	ARETI J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Oliver Cole	6%	10%	10.0	-45%	4th
7	CLIFF DANGER J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Pam Sly	5%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-35%	9th
8	DECEM STARR J: Jason Hart · T: Jack Jones	5%	7%	15.0	-29%	8th
9	KALOKALO J: Jason Watson · T: Charles Hills	4%	27%	3.8 ▼ Edge decreasing	-84%	Winner
10	LILLIE MARGOT J: Jack Garritty · T: Jedd O'Keeffe	4%	11%	9.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-62%	3rd
11	PARANJAPE J: David Egan · T: S Woods	4%	8%	12.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-55%	6th
12	PICTURE PALACE J: Josephine Gordon · T: Simon & Ed Crisford	3%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-56%	10th
13	JUST A GAMBLER J: Rob Hornby · T: Charlie Johnston	2%	11%	9.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-79%	7th
14	LIGHTENING LAD J: Cam Hardie · T: Grant Tuer	2%	1%	67.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+36%	12th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org