Market Rasen 13:50 — Value Analysis

Sunday 5 July 2026 · result below

Handicap Hurdle GD 20.5f Class 5 8 runners
🏁 Result: Makinbecon won (SP 4.0)
Model's most likely BANNISTER 16% model chance · market 8%
⚡ Model standout BANNISTER model rates it 16% but the market has it an outsider (13.0) — a higher-risk each-way angle.
How the race unfolded

Makinbecon (3/1) came out on top, winning by a length. Oneinthewell (10/3) filled second. Our model's top pick BANNISTER (16%) finished 6th.

Why the model rates BANNISTER top (16% chance)
  • ✓ Nicely in at the weights
  • ✓ Officially rated among the best here
  • ✓ Record at this level stands out
  • ✕ First run for 234 days - fitness to prove
  • ✕ Less consistent than the best of these

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
BANNISTER ★ Top Rated
J: Tom Broughton · T: Nick Kent
16%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +102% 6th
2
GONE IN SIXTY
J: Rian Corcoran · T: Alex Hales
14%
17%
5.8
 -17% 4th
3
MAKINBECON
J: Callum Pritchard · T: Barry John Murphy
13%
27%
3.8
 -50% Winner
4
ONEINTHEWELL
J: Alex Chadwick · T: James Owen
12%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
 -47% 2nd
5
CAPTAIN CONNOR
J: Tom Midgley · T: Mark Walford
7%
5%
19.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +40% 7th
6
TIME WAS
J: Oscar Palmer(3) · T: Philip Kirby
7%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +15% 5th
7
WILLIAM OF YORK
J: Charlie Maggs · T: Rebecca Menzies
6%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +6% —
8
LAKEFIELD FLYER
J: Paddy Hanlon · T: John Joseph Hanlon
4%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
 -82% 3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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