Lingfield 14:15 — Value Analysis

Monday 6 July 2026 · result below

Selling Handicap STD 12.0f Class 6 10 runners
🏁 Result: Mister Daydream won (SP 5.0)
Model's most likely HEART SIGN 34% model chance · market 33%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Mister Daydream (4/1) sat close to the pace before asserting, winning in a rout — 8 lengths back to the second. Sapphire Dream (7/2) filled second. Heart Sign, the 13/8 favourite, could manage only 6th. Our model's top pick HEART SIGN (34%) finished 6th.

Why the model rates HEART SIGN top (34% chance)
  • ✓ Ran well three runs back
  • ✓ Jockey riding well - 14% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today
  • ✕ Less consistent than the best of these

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
HEART SIGN ★ Top Rated
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Jack Morland
34%
33%
3.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +2% 6th
2
MISTER DAYDREAM
J: Rhys Clutterbuck · T: G & J Moore
15%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -41% Winner
3
MOONLIT CLOUD
J: K T O'Neill · T: D K Ivory
12%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +83% 3rd
4
PREMIER CRU
J: Daniel Muscutt · T: J R Fanshawe
12%
13%
7.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -11% 9th
5
SAPPHIRE DREAM
J: Liam Wright(5) · T: Charlie Clover
11%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -52% 2nd
6
CEZARRO
J: David Probert · T: M Young
9%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +71% 8th
7
LUNAR POWER
J: Georgia Dobie · T: Mrs L J Mongan
8%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +111% 7th
8
MARYLAND STAR
J: J F Egan · T: D K Ivory
7%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +77% 5th
9
MARINAKIS
J: L Morris · T: R Stephens
5%
4%
23.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +10% 4th
—
DOUGLAS DC NR
J: Billy Loughnane · T: A W Carroll
4%
—
—
 — Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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