Ayr 14:30 — Value Analysis

Monday 6 July 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GD 7.0f Class 4 10 runners

🏁 Result: Redline won (SP 5.0)

Model's most likely REDLINE 22% model chance · market 18%

★ Best value REDLINE model 22% vs market 18% · +20%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: TEN CLARETS is the market favourite (1.8) but the model rates it only 18% vs the market's 55% — it may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

Redline (4/1) found just enough on the line, winning by a short head. Ten Clarets (5/6) chased him home. Ten Clarets, the 5/6 favourite, met trouble and finished 2nd. Our model made him its top pick at 22%.

Why the model rates REDLINE top (22% chance)

✓ Today's trip looks ideal
✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
✓ Ran well over its last three runs
✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	REDLINE ★ Top Rated J: A Mullen · T: C Johnston	22%	18%	5.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+20%	Winner
2	TEN CLARETS J: C Lee · T: K R Burke	18%	55%	1.8	-66%	2nd
3	DONT STOP MOVIN J: Connor Beasley · T: M Dods	15%	25%	4.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-40%	6th
4	TOO MANY SPIRITS J: D Nolan · T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood	6%	11%	9.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-46%	4th
5	DREAMLIGHTER J: T Eaves · T: K A Ryan	5%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+39%	7th
6	THE RESDEV ROCKET J: Joanna Mason · T: M & D Easterby	4%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+53%	8th
7	SARAS SILVER GIRL J: Billy Garritty · T: M & D Easterby	4%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+56%	5th
8	AURORA VALKYRIE J: Kaiya Fraser · T: K Scott	4%	1%	81.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+189%	3rd
9	THAI PADDY J: Sean Kirrane · T: T D Easterby	3%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+56%	10th
10	THREEOCLOCKFLYER J: P Mulrennan · T: M & D Easterby	3%	1%	67.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+84%	9th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org