Lingfield 14:45 — Value Analysis

Monday 6 July 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes STD 7.0f Class 3 10 runners
🏁 Result: Perfect Nation won (SP 2.2)
Model's most likely CAVALIER 25% model chance · market 33%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: PERFECT NATION is the market favourite (2.0) but the model rates it only 19% vs the market's 50% — it may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

Perfect Nation, sent off just 6/5, delivered as expected, winning comfortably, by 3 lengths. Drum Bay (3/1) filled second. Our model's top pick CAVALIER (25%) finished 3rd.

Why the model rates CAVALIER top (25% chance)
  • ✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
  • ✓ Nicely in at the weights
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Less consistent than the best of these

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
CAVALIER ★ Top Rated
J: S M Levey · T: R Hannon
25%
33%
3.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -26% 3rd
2
PERFECT NATION
J: Billy Loughnane · T: G Boughey
19%
50%
2.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -63% Winner
3
CARROW ROAD
J: Joey Haynes · T: C Banham
8%
1%
126.0
 ⚠ market disagrees 9th
4
DRUM BAY
J: Rossa Ryan · T: R M Beckett
4%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -80% 2nd
5
GOBLET
J: Callum Hutchinson · T: H Morrison
4%
1%
151.0
 ⚠ market disagrees 8th
6
MINO
J: H Crouch · T: M Botti
4%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -28% 6th
7
PEAK TRAM
J: L Morris · T: Sir Mark Prescott
3%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +76% 4th
8
SON OF A FISH
J: P J Dobbs · T: R Hannon
3%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -9% 5th
9
HARBOUR PRINCE
J: J Mitchell · T: James Horton
2%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -30% 7th
10
THERE GOES MY HERO
J: Josephine Gordon · T: K Burke
2%
1%
67.0
 +49% 10th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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