Uttoxeter 13:30 — Value Analysis

Tuesday 7 July 2026 · result below

Novice Hurdle GD 16.0f Class 4 10 runners
🏁 Result: Eternal Angel won (SP 1.44)
Model's most likely ETERNAL ANGEL 41% model chance · market 62%
★ Best value AIMERIC model 16% vs market 13% · +19%
How the race unfolded

Eternal Angel did what the market expected at 2/5, winning in a rout — 18 lengths back to the second. Ride Like A Girl (11/4) chased him home. Our model made him its top pick at 41%.

Why the model rates ETERNAL ANGEL top (41% chance)
  • ✓ Nicely in at the weights
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
  • ✕ Ground may not suit
  • ✕ Hasn't faced much opposition yet

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance
Market
Implies
Avg Price Value
1
ETERNAL ANGEL ★ Top Rated
J: Stan Sheppard · T: Tom Lacey
41%
62%
1.6
▼ Edge decreasing
-34% Winner
2
RIDE LIKE A GIRL
J: Gavin Sheehan · T: Jamie Snowden
21%
33%
3.0
▲ Edge increasing
-36% 2nd
4
AMALFINA
J: Jonathan Burke · T: D J Jeffreys
0%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
-85% 3rd
5
ARCON
J: Luke Scott(3) · T: Jennie Candlish
0%
4%
23.0
-98% 6th
6
DANCINGONDIAMONDS
J: Sean Bowen · T: Olly Murphy
0%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
-97%
7
HAPPY HARRISON
J: James Davies · T: Gary Hanmer
0%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
-85% 9th
8
MYSTIC WIND
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton
0%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
-93% 7th
9
PEARL KNOT
J: Toby Wynne · T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
0%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
-87% 5th
10
ROSE WARRIOR
J: Ian Power · T: Jennie Candlish
0%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
-92% 8th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org