Pontefract 13:48 — Value Analysis

Tuesday 7 July 2026 · result below

Nursery GD 6.0f Class 6 8 runners
🏁 Result: Fasthope won (SP 7.5)
Model's most likely POPPY FOXY 41% model chance · market 45%
★ Best value BLACK CUILLIN model 21% vs market 18% · +18%
How the race unfolded

Fasthope (13/2) picked them off one by one in the closing stages, winning by a short head. Poppy Foxy (3/2) filled second. The exchange briefly made Poppy Foxy the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.01 from 2.6 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Poppy Foxy, the 3/2 favourite, could manage only 2nd. Our model's top pick POPPY FOXY (41%) finished 2nd.

Why the model rates POPPY FOXY top (41% chance)
  • ✓ Yard in form - 14% winners in the fortnight
  • ✓ Ran well two runs back
  • ✓ Race-fit - out just 7 days ago
  • ✕ Raised in class today
  • ✕ Jockey cold lately (7% in the fortnight)

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
POPPY FOXY ★ Top Rated
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Charlie Clover
41%
45%
2.2
 -9% 2nd
2
BLACK CUILLIN
J: Joanna Mason · T: Craig Lidster
21%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 +18% 4th
3
BAILA MORENA
J: Harry Russell · T: Ollie Pears
0%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -99% 7th
4
CLARET AND BLUES
J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
0%
10%
10.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -99% 6th
5
FASTHOPE
J: Cam Hardie · T: Brian Ellison
0%
12%
8.0
 -99% Winner
6
GIVENDALE
J: Alex Jary(3) · T: Nigel Tinkler
0%
3%
32.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -97% 8th
7
PRISCILLAS HOPE
J: Rowan Scott · T: Philip McBride
0%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -98% 5th
8
SPIRIT OF MARY
J: Andrew Mullen · T: Ben Haslam
0%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -99% 3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org