Uttoxeter 14:00 — Value Analysis

Tuesday 7 July 2026 · result below

Novice Hcap Chase GD 20.0f Class 4 8 runners
🏁 Result: Jiair Madrik won (SP 5.0)
Model's most likely THATS NICE 41% model chance · market 9%
★ Best value JIAIR MADRIK model 21% vs market 20% · +7%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: ICE JET is the market favourite (1.8) but the model rates it only 16% vs the market's 55% — it may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

Jiair Madrik (4/1) picked them off one by one in the closing stages, winning by a short head. Ice Jet (5/6) filled second. The exchange briefly made Gaelic Rambler the likely winner mid-race (matched at 6.00 from 15.0 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Ice Jet, the 5/6 favourite, met trouble and finished 2nd. Our model's top pick THATS NICE (41%) finished 4th.

Why the model rates THATS NICE top (41% chance)
  • ✓ Yard readies first-timers - 20% with debutants
  • ✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
  • ✓ Ran well three runs back
  • ✕ Form figures leave him plenty to find
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
THATS NICE ★ Top Rated
J: Harry Cobden · T: Nicky Henderson
41%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 4th
2
JIAIR MADRIK
J: Theo Gillard · T: Donald McCain
21%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +7% Winner
3
ICE JET
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton
16%
55%
1.8
 -71% 2nd
4
BACK IN THE BAY
J: Jonathan Burke · T: James Owen
0%
12%
8.0
 -99% 5th
5
GAELIC RAMBLER
J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr · T: Jonjo & A J O'Neill
0%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -99% 3rd
6
HUDSON
J: James Bowen · T: Mickey Bowen
0%
10%
10.0
 -99% 8th
7
SEEITOLDYA
J: Paddy Hanlon(5) · T: John Joseph Hanlon
0%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -95% 6th
8
THE CLONMEL KID
J: Joe Williamson · T: Philip Kirby
0%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -98% 7th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org