Catterick 14:30 — Value Analysis

Wednesday 8 July 2026 · result below

Nursery GTF 5.0f Class 6 9 runners
🏁 Result: Penny Capri won (SP 5.5)
Model's most likely NAJMET MINZAAL 18% model chance · market 35%
★ Best value BELLATINA model 15% vs market 14% · +7%
How the race unfolded

Penny Capri (9/2) came from off the pace to lead late, winning by a length. Bellatina (5/1) filled second. The exchange briefly made Bellatina the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.99 from 6.8 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Najmet Minzaal, the 5/2 favourite, could manage only 5th. Our model's top pick NAJMET MINZAAL (18%) finished 5th.

Why the model rates NAJMET MINZAAL top (18% chance)
  • ✓ Race-fit - out just 11 days ago
  • ✓ Ran well last time - finished 4th
  • ✕ Jockey cold lately (8% in the fortnight)
  • ✕ Raised in class today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
NAJMET MINZAAL ★ Top Rated
J: Kevin Stott · T: Jack Channon
18%
35%
2.9
 -47% 5th
2
BELLATINA
J: Connor Beasley · T: Charlie Johnston
15%
14%
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +7% 2nd
3
MARDY BUM
J: Mark Winn · T: David O'Meara
14%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +103% 3rd
4
PENNY CAPRI
J: Rowan Scott · T: David Loughnane
12%
15%
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -22% Winner
5
ARCADIAN DAYS
J: Jason Hart · T: Jack Morland
10%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -56% 8th
6
LAIRY MARY
J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby
8%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -8% 4th
7
EXPLAININGISLOSING
J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
6%
8%
13.0
 -22% 7th
8
FORTUNATE
J: Rhys Clutterbuck · T: Eve Johnson Houghton
4%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -24% 9th
9
MR DARLING
J: Cam Hardie · T: Bryan Smart
4%
3%
32.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +32% 6th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org