Yarmouth 14:15 — Value Analysis

Wednesday 8 July 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GTF 7.0f Class 5 8 runners

🏁 Result: Allegrino won (SP 6.5)

Model's most likely LOVERS LEAP 36% model chance · market 40%

★ Best value ALLEGRINO model 22% vs market 17% · +31%

How the race unfolded

Allegrino (11/2) came from off the pace to lead late, winning by half a length. Izzy Fast (16/1) filled second. The exchange briefly made Dream Illusion the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.88 from 6.8 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Lovers Leap, the 11/8 favourite, could manage only 3rd. Our model's top pick LOVERS LEAP (36%) finished 3rd.

Why the model rates LOVERS LEAP top (36% chance)

✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
✓ Jockey riding well - 18% strike rate in the fortnight
✓ Officially rated among the best here
✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	LOVERS LEAP ★ Top Rated J: Billy Loughnane · T: Jane Chapple-Hyam	36%	40%	2.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-9%	3rd
2	ALLEGRINO J: William Buick · T: Andrew Balding	22%	17%	6.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+31%	Winner
3	DREAM ILLUSION J: Dylan Hogan · T: Michael Herrington	15%	13%	7.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+16%	4th
4	GALILEO CHARM J: Robert Havlin · T: Marco Botti	12%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+59%	6th
5	IRONIST J: Mason Paetel(5) · T: George Margarson	11%	12%	8.5	-6%	8th
6	FANTASY OBSESSOR J: Ray Dawson · T: Michael Appleby	10%	12%	8.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-19%	7th
7	IZZY FAST J: Hector Crouch · T: Philip McBride	9%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+29%	2nd
8	ANGELS SHARE J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Knight	6%	7%	15.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-11%	5th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org