Doncaster 14:10 — Value Analysis

Thursday 9 July 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GTF 7.0f Class 2 7 runners
🏁 Result: Quest For Stars won (SP 19.0)
Model's most likely BULLETSNAP 30% model chance · market 14%
★ Best value BULLETSNAP model 30% vs market 14% · +108%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: OTTOMAN CHIEF is the market favourite (2.4) but the model rates it only 14% vs the market's 42% — it may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

Quest For Stars caused an upset at 18/1, winning by a short head. Amir Lehbab (7/2) filled second. The exchange briefly made Amir Lehbab the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.51 from 5.2 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Ottoman Chief, the 15/8 favourite, could manage only 5th. Our model's top pick BULLETSNAP (30%) finished 4th.

Why the model rates BULLETSNAP top (30% chance)
  • ✓ This jockey-trainer pairing wins 31% together
  • ✓ Jockey riding well - 16% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 32 days since its last run
  • ✕ Form figures leave him plenty to find
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
BULLETSNAP ★ Top Rated
J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas
30%
14%
7.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +108% 4th
2
AMIR LEHBAB
J: P J McDonald · T: Andrew Balding
17%
14%
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +17% 2nd
3
NIGHT STAR
J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon
17%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +9% 3rd
4
OTTOMAN CHIEF
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Charlie Appleby
14%
42%
2.4
 -67% 5th
5
QUEST FOR STARS
J: Connor Planas · T: Charlie Appleby
14%
7%
15.0
 +107% Winner
6
ARCTIC FORCE
J: Shane Gray · T: K. R. Burke
7%
20%
5.0
 -63% 6th
7
GERRYS DARLING
J: Kevin Stott · T: Roger Fell
2%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +135% 7th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org