Carlisle 14:00 — Value Analysis
Thursday 9 July 2026 · result below
⚠ Vulnerable favourite: BELLA ANGELINA is the market favourite (2.4) but the model rates it only 22% vs the market's 42% — it may be beatable.
Wid (11/8) took them along from the start and never saw another rival, winning by a length. Bella Angelina (13/8) chased him home. Our model made him its top pick at 55%.
- ✓ Jockey riding well - 15% strike rate in the fortnight
- ✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
- ✓ Ran well last time - finished 2nd
- ✕ Form figures leave him plenty to find
- ✕ Trip is a question mark
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
WID
★ Top Rated
|
55% |
40% |
2.5
|
+38% | Winner |
| 2 |
BELLA ANGELINA
|
22% |
42% |
2.4
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-48% | 2nd |
| 3 |
LEOPARDS ROCK
|
13% |
11% |
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
+21% | 3rd |
| 4 |
BLAIRTUM NIGHT
|
3% |
0% |
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
⚠ market disagrees | 6th |
| 5 |
RAKE LANE
|
3% |
1% |
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+250% | 5th |
| 6 |
STAR OF THE DESERT
|
3% |
17% |
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-79% | 4th |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org