Newmarket 13:50 — Value Analysis

Thursday 9 July 2026 · result below

Group 3 GTF 13.0f Class 1 5 runners

🏁 Result: Point Of Law won (SP 3.5)

Model's most likely DEL MARO 22% model chance · market 31%

★ Best value NIL BUA GAN DUA model 18% vs market 11% · +68%

How the race unfolded

Point Of Law (5/2) came from off the pace to lead late, winning by half a length. Galiyan (3/1) chased him home. Del Maro, the 9/4 favourite, could manage only 3rd. Our model's top pick DEL MARO (22%) finished 3rd.

Why the model rates DEL MARO top (22% chance)

✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
✓ Was well-in against its last field on ratings
✓ Ideally fresh - 22 days since its last run
✕ Official mark below most of this field
✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	DEL MARO ★ Top Rated J: William Buick · T: Charlie Appleby	22%	31%	3.2 ▲ Edge increasing	-28%	3rd
2	POINT OF LAW J: James Doyle · T: John & Thady Gosden	21%	27%	3.8	-21%	Winner
3	ALDERMAN J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hannon	20%	14%	7.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+40%	5th
4	GALIYAN J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding	19%	27%	3.8 ▼ Edge decreasing	-29%	2nd
5	NIL BUA GAN DUA J: Ryan Moore · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien	18%	11%	9.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+68%	4th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org