Newmarket 13:50 — Value Analysis

Friday 10 July 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GTF 10.0f Class 2 6 runners
🏁 Result: Heraldry won (SP 6.0)
Model's most likely PRINCLING 42% model chance · market 29%
★ Best value PRINCLING model 42% vs market 29% · +48%
How the race unfolded

Heraldry (5/1) made every yard of the running, winning by 1.8 lengths. Decade Of Time (9/1) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Laureate Crown the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.61 from 6.4 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Princling, the 5/2 favourite, could manage only 6th. Our model's top pick PRINCLING (42%) finished 6th.

Why the model rates PRINCLING top (42% chance)
  • ✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 20 days since its last run
  • ✓ A previous winner at this track
  • ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
PRINCLING ★ Top Rated
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas
42%
29%
3.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +48% 6th
2
HERALDRY
J: William Buick · T: John & Thady Gosden
22%
22%
4.5
 -1% Winner
3
ARCHERS BAY
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Marco Botti
9%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -15% 4th
4
DECADE OF TIME
J: George Bass · T: Jack Channon
9%
12%
8.2
 -26% 2nd
5
EVANESCO
J: David Egan · T: Charlie Johnston
9%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -60% 5th
6
LAUREATE CROWN
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Hugo Palmer
9%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -46% 3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org