Ascot 14:00 — Value Analysis

Friday 10 July 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GTF 8.0f Class 4 8 runners

🏁 Result: Best Rate won (SP 3.75)

Model's most likely NEWFANGLED 31% model chance · market 14%

★ Best value NEWFANGLED model 31% vs market 14% · +115%

How the race unfolded

Best Rate (11/4) picked them off one by one in the closing stages, winning by 1.5 lengths. Paladin (10/1) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Paladin the likely winner mid-race (matched at 5.00 from 14.0 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model's top pick NEWFANGLED (31%) finished 6th.

Why the model rates NEWFANGLED top (31% chance)

✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
✓ Nicely in at the weights
✓ Was well-in against its last field on ratings
✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
✕ Official mark below most of this field

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	NEWFANGLED ★ Top Rated J: Olivia Tubb(3) · T: Jonathan Portman	31%	14%	7.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+115%	6th
2	CLOUDS HILL J: Harry Vigors(5) · T: Charlie Johnston	26%	20%	5.0	+29%	8th
3	BEST RATE J: Seamus Cronin · T: Richard Hannon	16%	29%	3.5	-44%	Winner
4	HELM ROCK J: Christian Howarth · T: Daniel & Claire Kubler	8%	11%	9.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-23%	4th
5	RISING FORCE J: Jack Callan · T: John Butler	8%	9%	11.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-11%	5th
6	CHALK MOUNTAIN J: Alfie Redman(7) · T: Zoe Hawkins	5%	9%	11.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-48%	7th
7	PALADIN J: Jack Nicholls · T: Kevin Frost	5%	11%	9.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-55%	2nd
8	MYTHICAL GUEST J: Harry Burns · T: George Margarson	2%	13%	7.5	-87%	3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org