York 14:10 — Value Analysis

Friday 10 July 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GTF 7.0f Class 3 19 runners

🏁 Result: Northern Express won (SP 8.0)

Model's most likely YANIFER 11% model chance · market 7%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

How the race unfolded

Northern Express (7/1) found just enough on the line, winning by a short head. Pellitory (14/1) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Goldmoyne the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.26 from 5.5 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model's top pick YANIFER (11%) finished 14th.

Why the model rates YANIFER top (11% chance)

✓ Ideally fresh - 27 days since its last run
✓ Officially rated among the best here
✓ Yard readies first-timers - 8% with debutants
✕ Little to like about its run three runs back
✕ Hasn't faced much opposition yet

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	YANIFER ★ Top Rated J: Ethan Tindall(5) · T: Harriet Bethell	11%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+62%	14th
2	ANDESITE J: Kevin Stott · T: Roger Fell	7%	17%	6.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-56%	10th
3	CROUPIER J: David Nolan · T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith	7%	7%	15.0	+9%	15th
4	GOLDMOYNE J: Cieren Fallon · T: James Owen	7%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-60%	3rd
5	LIR SPECIALE J: Ben Robinson · T: Brian Ellison	7%	9%	11.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-20%	5th
6	MORTE POINT J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: William Muir & Chris Grassick	7%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-6%	6th
7	NORTHERN EXPRESS J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Michael Dods	7%	13%	7.5	-45%	Winner
8	OUR HAVANA J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey	7%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-6%	16th
9	QUEST FOR FUN J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby	7%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+53%	12th
10	WILD NATURE J: Oisin Orr · T: Edward Bethell	7%	4%	26.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+89%	11th
11	ANGEL HUNTER J: Joe Leavy · T: Richard Hannon	5%	9%	11.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-44%	4th
—	LORD ROXBY NR J: Alex Jary(3) · T: Nigel Tinkler	5%	5%	19.0	-3%	Withdrawn
12	RARE CHANGE J: Finley Marsh · T: Richard Hughes	5%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+18%	7th
13	MILFORD J: Charles Bishop · T: Julie Camacho	2%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-49%	9th
14	PELLITORY J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara	2%	7%	15.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-67%	2nd
15	SON J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby	2%	8%	12.0	-73%	13th
16	TILTED KILT J: Hector Crouch · T: William Knight	1%	4%	26.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-76%	8th
—	CANVAS NR J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Scott Dixon	0%	3%	29.0	-86%	Withdrawn
17	KING CASPER J: Cam Hardie · T: Hugo Palmer	0%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-74%	17th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org