Chester 13:35 — Value Analysis

Saturday 11 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GD 7.0f Class 4 9 runners
🏁 Result: Dream Vega won (SP 1.91)
Model's most likely DREAM VEGA 49% model chance · market 61%
★ Best value SECRET OATH model 18% vs market 11% · +65%
How the race unfolded

Dream Vega (9/10) picked them off one by one in the closing stages, winning comfortably, by 4 lengths. Secret Oath (7/1) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Secret Oath the likely winner mid-race (matched at 2.98 from 9.4 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model made him its top pick at 49%.

Why the model rates DREAM VEGA top (49% chance)
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 27 days since its last run
  • ✓ Today's trip looks ideal
  • ✕ Less consistent than the best of these
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
DREAM VEGA ★ Top Rated
J: Ashley Lewis(5) · T: Ed Walker
49%
61%
1.6
▼ Edge decreasing
 -19% Winner
2
SECRET OATH
J: Edward Greatrex · T: Charlie Appleby
18%
11%
9.2
▲ Edge increasing
 +65% 2nd
—
SOMETHING COMING NR
J: Jack Callan(3) · T: Peter Chapple-Hyam
7%
27%
3.8
 -73% Withdrawn
3
VENETIAN SKY
J: Harry Davies · T: William Haggas
7%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -68% 5th
4
VERONIQUE
J: Jason Watson · T: Andrew Balding
5%
12%
8.5
 -57% 7th
5
MINT
J: Ebrahim Nader · T: Daniel & Claire Kubler
4%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -40% 3rd
—
ANCIENT REALM NR
J: Dylan Hogan · T: Julie Camacho
3%
—
—
 — Withdrawn
6
MOONLIGHT MELODY
J: David Allan · T: Donald McCain
3%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +74% 4th
7
GOLDEN MABEL
J: Ben Ffrench Davis(5) · T: Lisa Williamson
3%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 6th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org