Newmarket 13:40 — Value Analysis

Saturday 11 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 7.0f Class 3 7 runners
🏁 Result: Haffner won (SP 2.25)
Model's most likely HAFFNER 35% model chance · market 48%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Haffner (5/4) took them along from the start and never saw another rival, winning by 1.5 lengths. Al Wathba (4/1) chased him home. Our model made him its top pick at 35%.

Why the model rates HAFFNER top (35% chance)
  • ✓ This jockey-trainer pairing wins 34% together
  • ✓ Jockey riding well - 25% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Yard readies first-timers - 14% with debutants
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Form figures leave him plenty to find

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
HAFFNER ★ Top Rated
J: Ryan Moore · T: A P O'Brien
35%
48%
2.1
▲ Edge increasing
 -27% Winner
2
AL WATHBA
J: William Buick · T: Charlie Appleby
13%
25%
4.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -46% 2nd
3
SIOUX RIVER
J: Tom Marquand · T: Roger Varian
13%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +129% 5th
4
VELOCIRAPTOR
J: James Doyle · T: Hugo Palmer
12%
4%
26.0
 +208% 3rd
5
LORD OF WINTERFELL
J: Clifford Lee · T: Patrick Owens
9%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +33% 7th
6
SUBSCRIPTION
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding
9%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -60% 4th
7
WALKIN ON THE MOON
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer
9%
4%
23.0
 +104% 6th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org