Navan 13:48 — Value Analysis

Saturday 11 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 6.0f Class 0 18 runners

🏁 Result: Shesthedevil won (SP 23.0)

Model's most likely JUST ONE SHOW 14% model chance · market 33%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

How the race unfolded

Shesthedevil (22/1) picked them off one by one in the closing stages, winning by 2.2 lengths. The Pipeman (16/1) filled second. Just One Show, the 2/1 favourite, could manage only 5th. Our model's top pick JUST ONE SHOW (14%) finished 5th.

Why the model rates JUST ONE SHOW top (14% chance)

✓ This jockey-trainer pairing wins 40% together
✓ Ideally fresh - 29 days since its last run
✓ Nicely in at the weights
✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
✕ Form figures leave him plenty to find

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	JUST ONE SHOW ★ Top Rated J: W J Lee · T: Jack Foley	14%	33%	3.0	-59%	5th
2	ARROWSTOCK J: Ben Coen · T: Daniel McLoughlin	12%	29%	3.5	-58%	4th
3	ANNIE BATT J: Andrew Slattery · T: Andrew Slattery	12%	17%	6.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-29%	14th
4	REVELATOR J: J M Sheridan · T: Josh Halley	11%	10%	10.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+6%	3rd
5	EIGHTEENTH SMILES J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien	9%	12%	8.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-21%	12th
—	EASTERN QUEEN NR J: Patrick McGettigan(5) · T: John S O'Donoghue	9%	9%	11.0	-4%	Withdrawn
6	I READY J: Sadhbh Tormey(7) · T: Paul W Flynn	8%	5%	19.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+50%	8th
7	THATSANOTHERSTORY J: Donagh O'Connor · T: A Oliver	7%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+183%	9th
8	NO TIME FAULTS J: Rory Cleary · T: Kevin Thomas Coleman	3%	1%	101.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+212%	11th
9	PANHANDLE J: Gary Carroll · T: Gavin Cromwell	2%	4%	26.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-35%	13th
10	THE GREEN HELMET J: Declan McDonogh · T: Andrew Slattery	2%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-1%	7th
11	CHIQUITITA BEE J: Adam Caffrey · T: Adrian McGuinness	2%	0%	301.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	16th
12	SHESTHEDEVIL J: Chris Hayes · T: Patrick Magee	2%	4%	23.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-52%	Winner
13	RUN JOHNNY RUN J: Robert Whearty · T: F G Hand	2%	2%	41.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-16%	15th
14	THE PIPEMAN J: Wayne Lordan · T: Miss Natalia Lupini	2%	6%	17.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-68%	2nd
15	CANDLE GLOW J: Ronan Whelan · T: K J Condon	2%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-38%	10th
16	LUCYS PROMISE J: Siobhan Rutledge · T: Adrian McGuinness	1%	1%	101.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+14%	6th
17	DOCKS J: Leigh Roche · T: Paul W Flynn	0%	0%	401.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-100%	17th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org