Sligo 13:10 — Value Analysis

Sunday 12 July 2026 · result below

Maiden nan 17.5f Class 0 12 runners
🏁 Result: Manoir De Mirande won (SP 4.0)
Model's most likely MANOIR DE MIRANDE 34% model chance · market 38%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Manoir De Mirande (3/1) picked them off one by one in the closing stages, winning by 2.2 lengths. Whats New (13/8) filled second. The exchange briefly made Beat The Devil the likely winner mid-race (matched at 4.80 from 20.0 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Whats New, the 13/8 favourite, could manage only 2nd. Our model made him its top pick at 34%.

Why the model rates MANOIR DE MIRANDE top (34% chance)
  • ✓ Nicely in at the weights
  • ✓ Yard in form - 17% winners in the fortnight
  • ✓ Jockey riding well - 18% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time
  • ✕ Hasn't faced much opposition yet

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
MANOIR DE MIRANDE ★ Top Rated
J: Jack Kennedy · T: Gordon Elliott
34%
38%
2.6
▲ Edge increasing
 -11% Winner
2
NOBLE ROCCO
J: Danny Gilligan · T: Gordon Elliott
9%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 9th
3
WHATS NEW
J: Cian Quirke · T: Andrew Slattery
9%
31%
3.2
▼ Edge decreasing
 -72% 2nd
4
BEAT THE DEVIL
J: Eoghan Finegan(5) · T: Patrick Magee
7%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +12% 7th
5
CASHELDALE LASS
J: Sean O'Keeffe · T: Andrew Kinirons
7%
11%
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -41% 8th
6
EMMAMIA
J: Phillip Enright · T: Mark Michael McNiff
7%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +170% 10th
7
MEGABALL
J: Alix Balfe(7) · T: Francis Casey
7%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees —
8
PEBBLE ISLAND
J: Dylan Kidd(7) · T: John C McConnell
7%
23%
4.3
▼ Edge decreasing
 -72% 4th
9
SYLVIE POWER
J: Richard Deegan · T: Liz Doyle
7%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 5th
10
THE CHANCIE GREY
J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: John Joseph Hanlon
7%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +71% 6th
—
IM ALL IN NR
J: Sam Ewing · T: Gordon Elliott
1%
4%
26.0
 -62% Withdrawn
11
BOBBY KIROVA
J: Joshua Halford(7) · T: Michael Butler
1%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -10% 3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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