Sligo 13:40 — Value Analysis

Sunday 12 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 17.5f Class 0 12 runners
🏁 Result: Unknown Fortune won (SP 26.0)
Model's most likely BOO RADLEY 36% model chance · market 26%
★ Best value BOO RADLEY model 36% vs market 26% · +41%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: RETURNING OFFICER is the market favourite (2.4) but the model rates it only 21% vs the market's 42% — it may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

Unknown Fortune (25/1) produced the strongest finish in the race, winning comfortably, by 3 lengths. Rosenborg (11/1) filled second. The exchange briefly made Rosenborg the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.60 from 16.0 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Returning Officer, the 5/4 favourite, could manage only 7th. Our model's top pick BOO RADLEY (36%) finished 9th.

Why the model rates BOO RADLEY top (36% chance)
  • ✓ Ran well last time - finished 5th
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today
  • ✕ Jockey cold lately (6% in the fortnight)

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
BOO RADLEY ★ Top Rated
J: Brian Hayes · T: W P Mullins
36%
26%
3.9
▲ Edge increasing
 +41% 9th
2
RETURNING OFFICER
J: Jack Kennedy · T: Gordon Elliott
21%
42%
2.4
▼ Edge decreasing
 -49% 7th
3
BROTHER HOLLIE
J: Phillip Enright · T: Mark Michael McNiff
7%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -68% 3rd
4
HEY SIR
J: Sean O'Keeffe · T: Peter Maher
7%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +104% 6th
5
NILE STAR
J: Shane Markey(7) · T: Ross O'Sullivan
7%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -37% 4th
6
ROSENBORG
J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: P J Rothwell
7%
8%
12.0
 -16% 2nd
7
UNKNOWN FORTUNE
J: Daniel King · T: John Patrick Ryan
7%
4%
23.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +62% Winner
8
GETHEGOODTIMESROLL
J: Shane O'Callaghan(3) · T: Peter Maher
2%
1%
69.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +7% 8th
9
A MAYO BREEZE
J: Philip Donovan · T: M Flannery
1%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +45% —
10
MIDDLETHIRD MARVEL
J: J J Slevin · T: Norman Lee
1%
1%
176.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +153% —
11
TOMMY GO MAITH
J: Carl Millar(5) · T: Thomas Patrick McGettigan
1%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +81% —
12
TRIBAL
J: Conor Smithers(7) · T: Norman Lee
1%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -27% 5th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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