Ayr 14:00 — Value Analysis

Monday 13 July 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GD 7.0f Class 3 5 runners

🏁 Result: Weleyff won (SP 2.88)

Model's most likely LOVE ROME 49% model chance · market 25%

★ Best value LOVE ROME model 49% vs market 25% · +95%

How the race unfolded

Weleyff (15/8) came from off the pace to lead late, winning by a length. Love Rome (3/1) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Love Rome the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.09 from 4.5 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model's top pick LOVE ROME (49%) finished 2nd.

Why the model rates LOVE ROME top (49% chance)

✓ Ran well last time - finished 3rd
✓ Jockey riding well - 16% strike rate in the fortnight
✓ Has run well in better company than today's
✕ Form figures leave him plenty to find
✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	LOVE ROME ★ Top Rated J: Jason Hart · T: Charlie Johnston	49%	25%	4.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+95%	2nd
2	WELEYFF J: Oisin Orr · T: Edward Bethell	23%	31%	3.2 ▲ Edge increasing	-26%	Winner
3	ASTRAL CROWN J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara	22%	20%	5.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+11%	5th
4	MR MINZ J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine	3%	7%	15.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-54%	3rd
5	VEGA KING J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: K. R. Burke	3%	29%	3.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-89%	4th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org