Ayr 14:30 — Value Analysis

Monday 13 July 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GD 5.0f Class 5 11 runners
🏁 Result: Curious Rover won (SP 4.0)
Model's most likely WOOHOO 30% model chance · market 33%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Curious Rover (3/1) controlled this from the front, winning by 1.2 lengths. Woohoo (2/1) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Hi Lord the likely winner mid-race (matched at 5.10 from 18.0 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Woohoo, the 2/1 favourite, could manage only 2nd. Our model's top pick WOOHOO (30%) finished 2nd.

Why the model rates WOOHOO top (30% chance)
  • ✓ Yard in form - 13% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
  • ✓ Proven over this exact course and distance
  • ✕ Hasn't faced much opposition yet
  • ✕ Unproven at this level

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
WOOHOO ★ Top Rated
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie
30%
33%
3.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -10% 2nd
2
BRAZEN IDOL
J: Sean D Bowen · T: John Ryan
11%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +12% 5th
3
CURIOUS ROVER
J: Jason Hart · T: Katie Scott
11%
23%
4.3
▼ Edge decreasing
 -51% Winner
4
KINGS CROWN
J: Sean Kirrane · T: Michael Dods
11%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +12% 10th
5
JM JHINGREE
J: William Pyle · T: Ewan Whillans
6%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +9% 8th
6
LIONS HOUSE
J: Connor Beasley · T: Linda Perratt
6%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -23% 4th
7
OUR ABSENT FRIENDS
J: Shane Gray · T: Tristan Davidson
6%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -4% 9th
8
WEE MARY
J: Lauren Young(5) · T: Jim Goldie
6%
12%
8.5
 -46% 7th
9
HI LORD
J: Barry McHugh · T: Gary Harrison
5%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -29% 3rd
10
FALCON QUEEN
J: David Allan · T: R Mike Smith
3%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -4% 6th
11
THISTLE NIL
J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Jim Goldie
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +6% 11th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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