Newton Abbot 14:42 — Value Analysis

Monday 13 July 2026 · result below

Handicap Chase GTF 16.5f Class 4 3 runners
🏁 Result: Gore Point won (SP 1.5)
Model's most likely GORE POINT 64% model chance · market 64%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Gore Point (1/2) was ridden with patience and delivered when asked, winning in a rout — 10 lengths back to the second. Miss Denver (5/1) filled second. Our model made him its top pick at 64%.

Why the model rates GORE POINT top (64% chance)
  • ✓ This jockey-trainer pairing wins 27% together
  • ✓ Sets the standard on recent form figures
  • ✓ Ran well two runs back
  • ✕ Unproven at this level
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
GORE POINT ★ Top Rated
J: Sam Twiston-Davies · T: Anthony Honeyball
64%
64%
1.6
 -0% Winner
2
MANYANA BLUE
J: Luke Scott(3) · T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
22%
27%
3.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -16% 3rd
3
MISS DENVER
J: James Turner(5) · T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
14%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -15% 2nd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org