Beverley 14:17 — Value Analysis

Tuesday 14 July 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes nan 5.0f Class 4 4 runners
🏁 Result: Fast Track won (SP 1.1)
Model's most likely FAST TRACK 43% model chance · market 91%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Fast Track did what the market expected at 1/10, winning in a rout — 7 lengths back to the second. Kokumi (15/2) filled second. Our model made him its top pick at 43%.

Why the model rates FAST TRACK top (43% chance)
  • ✓ Jockey riding well - 15% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
  • ✓ Ran well two runs back
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Form figures leave him plenty to find

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
FAST TRACK ★ Top Rated
J: P J McDonald · T: Andrew Balding
43%
91%
1.1
 -53% Winner
2
LOVEULONGTIME
J: William Pyle · T: Geoffrey Harker
15%
1%
81.0
 ⚠ market disagrees 4th
3
HAIR RAISING
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
14%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +189% 3rd
4
KOKUMI
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
13%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +17% 2nd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org