Downpatrick 14:07 — Value Analysis

Tuesday 14 July 2026 · result below

Maiden nan 18.0f Class 0 12 runners

🏁 Result: Fastnet Crystal won (SP 2.62)

Model's most likely COOL NATIVE 24% model chance · market 31%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: FASTNET CRYSTAL is the market favourite (2.8) but the model rates it only 14% vs the market's 36% — it may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

Fastnet Crystal (13/8) came from off the pace to lead late, winning in a rout — 6 lengths back to the second. Mercurial Sea (7/1) filled second. Our model's top pick COOL NATIVE (24%) finished 3rd.

Why the model rates COOL NATIVE top (24% chance)

✓ Jockey riding well - 19% strike rate in the fortnight
✓ Yard in form - 18% winners in the fortnight
✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
✕ Carries plenty of weight today
✕ Little to like about its run last time

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	COOL NATIVE ★ Top Rated J: Jack Kennedy · T: Gordon Elliott	24%	31%	3.2	-21%	3rd
2	FASTNET CRYSTAL J: Richard Deegan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien	14%	36%	2.8 ▼ Edge decreasing	-61%	Winner
3	RITZ PLAN J: J J Slevin · T: S R B Crawford	11%	12%	8.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-6%	7th
4	ROOM FOR ONE MORE J: Sean O'Keeffe · T: W P Mullins	11%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+59%	9th
5	BAYONETTA J: Kevin Healy(7) · T: Gerald Stephen Quinn	7%	15%	6.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-57%	4th
6	JET TO GLORY J: Alex Harvey · T: John C McConnell	6%	3%	29.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+76%	—
7	HELLO BELOW J: Ricky Doyle · T: Colin Bowe	6%	4%	26.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+56%	6th
8	MERCURIAL SEA J: Paddy Cleary(7) · T: Nigel Thomas Slevin	4%	11%	9.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-57%	2nd
9	MY GIRL ROSIE J: Josh Williamson(5) · T: Ian Patrick Donoghue	4%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+95%	5th
10	JOLLY DOLIVATE J: Tiernan Power Roche · T: P J Rothwell	3%	1%	126.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+284%	8th
—	NELLIESTAR NR J: Dylan O'Connor(7) · T: Thomas Patrick McGettigan	2%	0%	201.0	⚠ market disagrees	Withdrawn
11	THREE LEAF CLOVER J: Alix Balfe(7) · T: Dermot A McLoughlin	2%	0%	201.0	⚠ market disagrees	10th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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