Leicester 13:54 — Value Analysis

Tuesday 14 July 2026 · result below

Nursery GTF 7.0f Class 6 10 runners
🏁 Result: Emerald Bay won (SP 5.5)
Model's most likely HAMDANI MOKHATER 23% model chance · market 20%
★ Best value HAMDANI MOKHATER model 23% vs market 20% · +16%
How the race unfolded

Emerald Bay (9/2) took them along from the start and never saw another rival, winning by a length. Hamdani Mokhater (7/2) filled second. The exchange briefly made Hamdani Mokhater the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.25 from 5.5 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model's top pick HAMDANI MOKHATER (23%) finished 2nd.

Why the model rates HAMDANI MOKHATER top (23% chance)
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 31 days since its last run
  • ✓ Jockey riding well - 17% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✕ Yard quiet lately (8% in the last two months)
  • ✕ Raised in class today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
HAMDANI MOKHATER ★ Top Rated
J: Jason Hart · T: James Horton
23%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +16% 2nd
2
EMERALD BAY
J: Darragh Keenan · T: George Scott
15%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -25% Winner
3
LE GRAND ETOILE
J: Rob Hornby · T: Charlie Johnston
12%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -30% 7th
4
ALPACAS BULLET
J: Charles Bishop · T: Adam Kirby
9%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +23% 8th
5
BLUESTONE LADY
J: Dougie Costello · T: Phillip Makin
9%
13%
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -36% 10th
6
TIGER IN THE TREE
J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(5) · T: Tim Easterby
8%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -23% 3rd
7
AGNES HATHAWAY
J: Ross Coakley · T: Michael Bell
5%
5%
19.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +4% 6th
8
AURA OF MELANIA
J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Roger Fell
5%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -46% 5th
9
MAGICAL LIFE
J: Ashley Lewis(5) · T: J S Moore
5%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -29% 4th
10
POSTCARD
J: Olivia Tubb(5) · T: Adam Kirby
5%
8%
13.0
 -41% 9th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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