Bath 14:31 — Value Analysis

Wednesday 15 July 2026 · result below

Other Handicap FRM 5.5f Class 5 7 runners

🏁 Result: Grey Horizon won (SP 4.5)

Model's most likely SAUCY JANE 34% model chance · market 29%

★ Best value SAUCY JANE model 34% vs market 29% · +20%

How the race unfolded

Grey Horizon (7/2) picked them off one by one in the closing stages, winning by a length. Merrimack (5/1) filled second. The exchange briefly made Merrimack the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.82 from 7.0 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Safari Dream, the 5/2 favourite, could manage only 3rd. Our model's top pick SAUCY JANE (34%) finished 6th.

Why the model rates SAUCY JANE top (34% chance)

✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
✓ Ran well over its last three runs
✓ Nicely in at the weights
✕ Hasn't faced much opposition yet
✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	SAUCY JANE ★ Top Rated J: Mason Paetel · T: Jack Morland	34%	29%	3.5	+20%	6th
2	EARLY RELEASE J: Ryan Kavanagh · T: David Evans	23%	9%	11.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+156%	5th
3	GREY HORIZON J: Christian Howarth · T: Scott Dixon	18%	23%	4.3	-20%	Winner
4	REALITY QUEEN J: Liam Wright · T: Michael Appleby	14%	8%	12.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+70%	4th
5	SAFARI DREAM J: Charlie Tucker(7) · T: Rod Millman	13%	29%	3.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-54%	3rd
6	MERRIMACK J: Chloe Lyons(7) · T: Stuart Williams	10%	14%	7.0	-30%	2nd
—	IN THE CITY NR J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: Warren Greatrex	9%	3%	29.0	+157%	Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org