Uttoxeter 14:18 — Value Analysis

Wednesday 15 July 2026 · result below

Maiden nan 20.0f Class 4 9 runners

🏁 Result: Fine Thing won (SP 2.88)

Model's most likely FINE THING 29% model chance · market 33%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

How the race unfolded

Fine Thing (15/8) was simply too strong for these, winning in a rout — 8 lengths back to the second. Diamond Grace (10/3) filled second. Our model made him its top pick at 29%.

Why the model rates FINE THING top (29% chance)

✓ Yard readies first-timers - 17% with debutants
✓ This jockey-trainer pairing wins 29% together
✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
✕ Little to like about its run three runs back
✕ Less consistent than the best of these

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	FINE THING ★ Top Rated J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton	29%	33%	3.0	-14%	Winner
—	MOONSHINE RIVER NR J: Ciaran Gethings · T: Alastair Ralph	15%	23%	4.3	-33%	Withdrawn
2	DIAMOND GRACE J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr. · T: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill	11%	23%	4.3 ▼ Edge decreasing	-53%	2nd
3	JESSIE JUMP JET J: Ben Poste · T: Samuel Drinkwater	8%	18%	5.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-55%	6th
4	LIPSTICK TRACES J: Callum Bewley · T: Justin Landy	7%	10%	10.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-27%	5th
5	MIDNIGHT PASS J: James Bowen · T: Emma Lavelle	6%	12%	8.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-52%	3rd
6	COUGARONTHELOOSE J: Sean Bowen · T: Olly Murphy	6%	15%	6.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-62%	4th
7	ORESTINA J: Nathan Moscrop · T: Rebecca Menzies	5%	1%	81.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	—
8	MISS THE STING J: Charlie Todd · T: Charles & Adam Pogson	4%	0%	201.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	—

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org