Catterick 14:10 — Value Analysis

Wednesday 15 July 2026 · result below

Amateur GTF 12.0f Class 5 6 runners
🏁 Result: Palazzo Persico won (SP 3.5)
Model's most likely MADE ALL 34% model chance · market 62%
★ Best value HES OUR CRACKER model 17% vs market 13% · +24%
How the race unfolded

Palazzo Persico (5/2) took them along from the start and never saw another rival, winning by half a length. On The Bubble (22/1) filled second. Made All, the 1/2 favourite, could manage only 3rd. Our model's top pick MADE ALL (34%) finished 3rd.

Why the model rates MADE ALL top (34% chance)
  • ✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
  • ✓ Yard in form - 23% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
MADE ALL ★ Top Rated
J: Miss Natasha Cookson · T: Sam England
34%
62%
1.6
▼ Edge decreasing
 -46% 3rd
2
PALAZZO PERSICO
J: Miss Grace Littmoden · T: Tony Carroll
21%
27%
3.8
▲ Edge increasing
 -21% Winner
3
HES OUR CRACKER
J: Mr Freddie Robson · T: Jennie Candlish
17%
13%
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +24% 4th
4
RULER OF THE RIVER
J: Mr Jack Loughnane(3) · T: Philip Kirby
15%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 6th
5
COUGAR
J: Miss Sophia Watson(3) · T: Michael Chapman
9%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 5th
6
ON THE BUBBLE
J: Miss Kayla Ruddy(3) · T: Gary Rutherford
8%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +30% 2nd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org