Chepstow 14:05 — Value Analysis

Thursday 16 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 8.0f Class 4 3 runners
🏁 Result: Lyrics Of Life won (SP 1.57)
Model's most likely LYRICS OF LIFE 44% model chance · market 65%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Lyrics Of Life justified strong market support at 3/5, winning by a length. Quisana (3/2) chased him home. Our model made him its top pick at 44%.

Why the model rates LYRICS OF LIFE top (44% chance)
  • ✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
  • ✓ Today's trip looks ideal
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
  • ✕ Form figures leave him plenty to find

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
LYRICS OF LIFE ★ Top Rated
J: Joe Leavy · T: Brian Meehan
44%
65%
1.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -32% Winner
2
QUISANA
J: Charles Bishop · T: Eve Johnson Houghton
25%
42%
2.4
▲ Edge increasing
 -41% 2nd
3
FALLEN LOGIC
J: William Carson · T: Grace Harris
12%
2%
51.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org