Thirsk 13:53 — Value Analysis

Thursday 16 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 7.0f Class 5 3 runners
🏁 Result: Clementines Star won (SP 1.53)
Model's most likely CLEMENTINES STAR 45% model chance · market 62%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Clementines Star (1/2) took them along from the start and never saw another rival, winning by 2 lengths. Princess Honey Bee (11/4) chased him home. Our model made him its top pick at 45%.

Why the model rates CLEMENTINES STAR top (45% chance)
  • ✓ Race-fit - out just 11 days ago
  • ✓ Today's trip looks ideal
  • ✕ Form figures leave him plenty to find
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
CLEMENTINES STAR ★ Top Rated
J: William Carver · T: Daniel & Claire Kubler
45%
62%
1.6
 -27% Winner
2
PRINCESS HONEY BEE
J: Clifford Lee · T: Craig Lidster
20%
27%
3.8
 -26% 2nd
3
DOLOS STAR
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Ivan Furtado
14%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -23% 3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org