Hamilton 13:40 — Value Analysis

Thursday 16 July 2026 · result below

Nursery GTF 5.0f Class 4 4 runners
🏁 Result: Call Nicki won (SP 2.25)
Model's most likely CALL NICKI 35% model chance · market 44%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Call Nicki (5/4) picked them off one by one in the closing stages, winning comfortably, by 4 lengths. Tango Hotel (2/1) chased him home. Our model made him its top pick at 35%.

Why the model rates CALL NICKI top (35% chance)
  • ✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
  • ✓ Yard readies first-timers - 4% with debutants
  • ✓ Today's trip looks ideal
  • ✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs
  • ✕ An exposed veteran of the field

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
CALL NICKI ★ Top Rated
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
35%
44%
2.2
▼ Edge decreasing
 -21% Winner
—
CATURRA LIGHTS NR
J: Jack Nicholls(5) · T: Adrian Keatley
24%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
 +3% Withdrawn
2
TANGO HOTEL
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: George Scott
19%
33%
3.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -42% 2nd
3
OR ANOTHER
J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: K. R. Burke
12%
11%
9.0
 +4% 3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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