Killarney 13:32 — Value Analysis

Friday 17 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GD 17.0f Class 0 12 runners

🏁 Result: Cite Florale won (SP 1.83)

Model's most likely CITE FLORALE 27% model chance · market 50%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

How the race unfolded

Cite Florale justified strong market support at 5/6, winning by a short head. Minella Buoy (13/2) filled second. The exchange briefly made Minella Buoy the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.09 from 10.0 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model made him its top pick at 27%.

Why the model rates CITE FLORALE top (27% chance)

✓ Ran well last time - finished 2nd
✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
✓ This jockey-trainer pairing wins 19% together
✕ Carries plenty of weight today
✕ Hasn't faced much opposition yet

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	CITE FLORALE ★ Top Rated J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: Henry De Bromhead	27%	50%	2.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-45%	Winner
2	MINELLA BUOY J: Daniel King · T: John J Nallen	13%	11%	9.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	+24%	2nd
3	DIVELMENT J: Patrick M O'Brien(5) · T: William Durkan	12%	8%	12.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+42%	6th
4	MISTY COVE J: Conor Stone-Walsh · T: Gavin Cromwell	11%	11%	9.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+5%	5th
5	WORDS UNSPOKEN J: Phillip Enright · T: S Curling	10%	20%	5.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-50%	7th
6	PRIVATE LARRY J: Sean O'Keeffe · T: Alan McIntyre	9%	12%	8.2 ▲ Edge increasing	-22%	3rd
7	NO BOTHER AOIFE J: Kevin Sexton · T: Gavin Cromwell	6%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-28%	4th
8	DELUSIONAL J: Shane O'Callaghan(3) · T: Peter Maher	5%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+84%	—
9	HONEY DALE J: Kevin Healy · T: Paul Mulligan	3%	1%	101.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+253%	—
10	BALANCE OF TRADE J: Ben Mulligan(7) · T: Paul Mulligan	3%	1%	126.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+236%	8th
11	CONNOR OF MALI J: Alan O'Sullivan(5) · T: L J Archdeacon	2%	0%	251.0	⚠ market disagrees	9th
12	NOTAHAIROUTOFPLACE J: Michael Kenneally(5) · T: R K Watson	2%	0%	401.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	—

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org