Killarney 14:02 — Value Analysis

Friday 17 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GD 23.0f Class 0 15 runners

🏁 Result: Pets Georgina won (SP 6.0)

Model's most likely PETS GEORGINA 25% model chance · market 17%

★ Best value PETS GEORGINA model 25% vs market 17% · +47%

How the race unfolded

Pets Georgina (5/1) put the race to bed in a matter of strides, winning comfortably, by 4 lengths. Chisel Hill (9/2) chased him home. Our model made him its top pick at 25%.

Why the model rates PETS GEORGINA top (25% chance)

✓ Ran well over its last three runs
✓ Yard in form - 14% winners in the fortnight
✓ Nicely in at the weights
✕ Form figures leave him plenty to find
✕ Jockey cold lately (9% in the fortnight)

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	PETS GEORGINA ★ Top Rated J: J J Slevin · T: John Patrick Ryan	25%	17%	6.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+47%	Winner
2	MYSILVERRIVERFEALE J: Daniel King · T: Thomas Cooper	21%	25%	4.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-16%	4th
3	TUMBLING IN J: G B Noonan · T: E McNamara	17%	29%	3.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-40%	3rd
4	SOME PRETENDER J: Brian Hayes · T: W P Mullins	15%	22%	4.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-34%	5th
5	TORQUE DE LUNE J: Harry Sexton(7) · T: John Joseph Hanlon	11%	4%	23.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+152%	—
6	CHISEL HILL J: Sam Ewing · T: Ian Patrick Donoghue	10%	15%	6.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-36%	2nd
7	FRAHER FIELD J: Phillip Enright · T: John E & Thomas Kiely	8%	14%	7.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-46%	6th
8	GLENMORE GRADUATE J: Sean O'Keeffe · T: Peter Maher	6%	0%	301.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	11th
9	KEYSER SMOKESY J: Mr T O'Connor(7) · T: T O'Connor	5%	0%	301.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	7th
10	ANOTHER BLUNDER J: Alan O'Sullivan(5) · T: Michael Barry	4%	0%	301.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	8th
11	DAILY DEVOTION J: Richard Condon(5) · T: Paul Hennessy	3%	0%	301.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	—
12	SONNA LADY J: Josh Younge(7) · T: John Joseph Hanlon	3%	0%	251.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	10th
13	JESSIE ROE J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: Brian Mortell	3%	0%	301.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	—
14	UNO ME I LIKE MY T J: Paddy Cleary(7) · T: Miss Katy Brown	2%	0%	301.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	9th
15	GREENROAD GIRL J: Conor Stone-Walsh · T: R K Watson	1%	0%	251.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+237%	—

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org