Wolverhampton 14:13 — Value Analysis

Friday 17 July 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes nan 6.0f Class 4 8 runners
🏁 Result: Bated Benevolence won (SP 2.25)
Model's most likely BATED BENEVOLENCE 34% model chance · market 48%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Bated Benevolence (5/4) had the answers when it counted, winning comfortably, by 4 lengths. Roosike (9/4) chased him home. Our model made him its top pick at 34%.

Why the model rates BATED BENEVOLENCE top (34% chance)
  • ✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
  • ✓ Ran well two runs back
  • ✓ Record at this level stands out
  • ✕ Hasn't faced much opposition yet
  • ✕ An exposed veteran of the field

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
BATED BENEVOLENCE ★ Top Rated
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Marco Botti
34%
48%
2.1
▼ Edge decreasing
 -28% Winner
2
SEQUEL STAR
J: George Downing · T: Ed Walker
20%
25%
4.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -20% 3rd
3
HOOSIER
J: Rob Hornby · T: Michael Bell
10%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +44% 4th
4
ROOSIKE
J: Finley Marsh · T: Richard Hughes
9%
27%
3.8
 -65% 2nd
5
KHAZAMH
J: Ethan Tindall(5) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
5%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +255% 7th
6
LEADING RAYA
J: William Cox · T: Mark Usher
4%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 8th
7
EXPENSIVE LUXURY
J: Jack Nicholls(5) · T: K. R. Burke
4%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -20% 6th
8
VERUCA SALT
J: Jonny Peate · T: James Fanshawe
4%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -9% 5th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org