Curragh 13:10 — Value Analysis

Saturday 18 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 7.0f Class 0 6 runners
🏁 Result: Porto Vecchio won (SP 10.0)
Model's most likely ANCHOR ROAD 19% model chance · market 42%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Porto Vecchio (9/1) picked them off one by one in the closing stages, winning by half a length. Victory Speech (8/1) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Victory Speech the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.52 from 10.5 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Anchor Road, the evens favourite, met trouble and finished 3rd. Our model's top pick ANCHOR ROAD (19%) finished 3rd.

Why the model rates ANCHOR ROAD top (19% chance)
  • ✓ Jockey riding well - 17% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Form figures leave him plenty to find

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ANCHOR ROAD ★ Top Rated
J: Colin Keane · T: G M Lyons
19%
42%
2.4
▲ Edge increasing
 -54% 3rd
2
SPEAKERS CORNER
J: Ryan Moore · T: A P O'Brien
19%
33%
3.0
 -42% 4th
3
VICTORY SPEECH
J: Wayne Lordan · T: A P O'Brien
15%
12%
8.5
 +27% 2nd
4
DRUMBEAT
J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: A P O'Brien
11%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +40% 6th
5
PORTO VECCHIO
J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld
9%
13%
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -33% Winner
6
FORT DEARBORN
J: Ben Coen · T: J P Murtagh
8%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +66% 5th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org