Market Rasen 13:35 — Value Analysis

Saturday 18 July 2026 · result below

Novice Hurdle GD 20.5f Class 4 6 runners

🏁 Result: Master Haku won (SP 2.38)

Model's most likely LORIKO 42% model chance · market 45%

★ Best value NOBOTHERATALL model 18% vs market 15% · +15%

How the race unfolded

Master Haku (11/8) ran out the winner, winning by half a length. Loriko (11/8) chased him home. Our model's top pick LORIKO (42%) finished 2nd.

Why the model rates LORIKO top (42% chance)

✓ This jockey-trainer pairing wins 29% together
✓ Jockey riding well - 38% strike rate in the last two months
✓ Nicely in at the weights
✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
✕ Hasn't faced much opposition yet

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	LORIKO ★ Top Rated J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton	42%	45%	2.2 ▲ Edge increasing	-8%	2nd
2	MASTER HAKU J: Sean Bowen · T: Gordon Elliott	29%	38%	2.6 ▼ Edge decreasing	-23%	Winner
3	NOBOTHERATALL J: Harry Reed · T: Tristan Davidson	18%	15%	6.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+15%	4th
4	SHOW YOUR HAND J: Freddie Keighley(5) · T: Adrian Keatley	13%	11%	9.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	+19%	3rd
5	ARCIMBOLDO J: Charlie Maggs(3) · T: Mike Sowersby	8%	1%	126.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	—
6	BALLINOULART J: Richard Upton(7) · T: David Bridgwater	8%	1%	81.0	⚠ market disagrees	5th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org