Curragh 13:40 — Value Analysis

Saturday 18 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 7.0f Class 0 12 runners
🏁 Result: Rebel Wave won (SP 5.0)
Model's most likely NAUTIC STAR 25% model chance · market 33%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Rebel Wave (4/1) produced the strongest finish in the race, winning by a short head. Stooked (11/4) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Stooked the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.23 from 4.3 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Nautic Star, the 2/1 favourite, could manage only 3rd. Our model's top pick NAUTIC STAR (25%) finished 3rd.

Why the model rates NAUTIC STAR top (25% chance)
  • ✓ Ran well last time - finished 3rd
  • ✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
  • ✕ Yard quiet lately (6% in the fortnight)
  • ✕ Hasn't faced much opposition yet

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
NAUTIC STAR ★ Top Rated
J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs John Harrington
25%
33%
3.0
 -25% 3rd
2
REBEL WAVE
J: W J Lee · T: W McCreery
15%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -4% Winner
3
PINK CORAL
J: Ryan Moore · T: A P O'Brien
14%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -17% 9th
—
VISHAYA NR
J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
13%
23%
4.3
 -44% Withdrawn
4
CAISLEAN NI CUAN
J: N G McCullagh · T: Thomas Mullins
7%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +139% 7th
5
SAGA LUCIA
J: Oisin Murphy · T: M D O'Callaghan
6%
8%
12.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -25% 6th
6
NEVER THE SAME
J: J M Sheridan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
6%
5%
19.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +13% 4th
7
LILLIS ANGEL
J: Ben Coen · T: Daniel McLoughlin
3%
6%
16.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -49% 8th
8
KIDD
J: Jessica Maye(7) · T: John C McConnell
3%
0%
251.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 10th
9
STOOKED
J: Colin Keane · T: G M Lyons
3%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -89% 2nd
10
WOOLOONGABBA
J: Siobhan Rutledge · T: John C McConnell
2%
0%
251.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 11th
11
OTSANA
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: P Twomey
2%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -77% 5th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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