Curragh 13:40 — Value Analysis

Sunday 19 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 5.0f Class 0 12 runners
🏁 Result: La Tache won (SP 11.0)
Model's most likely BOLD COMMANDER 35% model chance · market 42%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

La Tache (10/1) found just enough on the line, winning by a short head. Star Above Me (12/1) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Star Above Me the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.19 from 16.0 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Bold Commander, the 11/8 favourite, could manage only 5th. Our model's top pick BOLD COMMANDER (35%) finished 5th.

Why the model rates BOLD COMMANDER top (35% chance)

Finished second 16 days ago against stronger opposition; trip suits and the yard readies first-timers well, though weight and an upgrade in class are negatives.

  • ✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
  • ✓ Ran well last time - finished 2nd
  • ✓ Yard readies first-timers - 14% with debutants
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
BOLD COMMANDER ★ Top Rated
J: Ryan Moore · T: A P O'Brien
35%
42%
2.4
▼ Edge decreasing
 -16% 5th
2
LITMUS TEST
J: W J Lee · T: P Twomey
17%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -4% 7th
3
ABLETAI
J: Wayne Lordan · T: M C Grassick
12%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -42% 6th
4
LA TACHE
J: Colin Keane · T: G M Lyons
11%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +2% Winner
5
SOUTHERN BOULEVARD
J: Gary Carroll · T: G M Lyons
8%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +139% 3rd
6
MY IRISH LADY
J: Ben Coen · T: J P Murtagh
4%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +139% 10th
7
ATLANTIC BRIDGE
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Robson De Aguiar
3%
12%
8.0
 -78% 4th
8
THE DRAMBLING MAN
J: Rory Cleary · T: Kevin Thomas Coleman
3%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 9th
—
BRAGEIRO NR
J: Shane Foley · T: Ross O'Sullivan
2%
3%
29.0
 -28% Withdrawn
9
STELLAR PATH
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Kieran P Cotter
2%
0%
401.0
▲ Edge increasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 8th
10
INVINCIBLE IRISH
J: Nathan Crosse · T: Daniel McLoughlin
2%
1%
113.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +141% 11th
11
STAR ABOVE ME
J: Andrew Slattery · T: Andrew Slattery
2%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -81% 2nd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org