Stratford 13:45 — Value Analysis

Sunday 19 July 2026 · result below

Novice Hurdle GTF 16.5f Class 3 5 runners
🏁 Result: Edelak won (SP 1.67)
Model's most likely EDELAK 38% model chance · market 56%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Edelak (2/3) sat close to the pace before asserting, winning in a rout — 7 lengths back to the second. Obsessedwithyou (6/5) filled second. Our model made him its top pick at 38%.

Why the model rates EDELAK top (38% chance)

Nicely in at the weights with today's trip ideal, proven at this level, and shown improvement potential, but a poor run two runs back and an ineffective jockey-trainer pairing complicate the picture.

  • ✓ Nicely in at the weights
  • ✓ Today's trip looks ideal
  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
  • ✕ Jockey-trainer pairing rarely clicks (0%)

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
EDELAK ★ Top Rated
J: Harry Atkins(5) · T: Dan Skelton
38%
56%
1.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -32% Winner
2
OBSESSEDWITHYOU
J: Gavin Sheehan · T: Jamie Snowden
27%
50%
2.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -45% 2nd
—
LORIKO NR
J: Miss Heidi Palin(5) · T: Dan Skelton
19%
31%
3.2
 -39% Withdrawn
3
HES TAILOR MADE
J: Rian Corcoran(5) · T: Adrian Wintle
10%
2%
51.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 4th
4
ANGEL OF MY DREAMS
J: Nick Slatter(3) · T: David Killahena & Graeme McPherson
8%
2%
51.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 ⚠ market disagrees 3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org