Redcar 13:53 — Value Analysis

Sunday 19 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GTF 7.0f Class 4 14 runners

🏁 Result: Mojito Madness won (SP 2.5)

Model's most likely BONJOUR BELLE 18% model chance · market 7%

⚡ Model standout BONJOUR BELLE model rates it 18% but the market has it an outsider (15.0) — a higher-risk each-way angle.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: HEY UP RONNIE is the market favourite (2.1) but the model rates it only 13% vs the market's 48% — it may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

Mojito Madness (3/2) produced the strongest finish in the race, winning comfortably, by 3 lengths. Gerry's Darling (18/1) filled second. Hey Up Ronnie, the 11/10 favourite, could manage only 3rd. Our model's top pick BONJOUR BELLE (18%) finished 10th.

Why the model rates BONJOUR BELLE top (18% chance)

✓ Nicely in at the weights
✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
✕ Yard quiet lately (6% in the last two months)
✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	BONJOUR BELLE ★ Top Rated J: Ben Robinson · T: Brian Ellison	18%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+175%	10th
2	MOJITO MADNESS J: Ray Dawson · T: Gihan Arnolda	16%	38%	2.6 ▼ Edge decreasing	-58%	Winner
3	GERRYS DARLING J: Kevin Stott · T: Roger Fell	15%	7%	15.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+119%	2nd
4	HEY UP RONNIE J: Harry Russell · T: Ollie Pears	13%	48%	2.1 ▲ Edge increasing	-73%	3rd
5	BOLLIN MARSHA J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby	10%	0%	201.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	13th
6	BE MORE RUTHLESS J: Jack Garritty · T: Adrian Nicholls	8%	1%	151.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	11th
7	HICKOS LAD J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby	6%	2%	51.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+214%	9th
8	THAI PADDY J: Sean Kirrane · T: Tim Easterby	4%	1%	126.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	8th
9	KOMPOZITOR J: Lewis Edmunds · T: David & Nicola Barron	4%	11%	9.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-61%	7th
—	COUL BLUE NR J: Mark Winn · T: Michael Dods	3%	6%	17.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-41%	Withdrawn
10	DAVES MATEY J: Jake Dickson(7) · T: Tim Easterby	3%	1%	67.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+118%	12th
11	TOMMOS QUEEN J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby	3%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+25%	4th
12	BEDWYR J: Cam Hardie · T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood	3%	1%	126.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+227%	5th
13	NOSEY BOOK J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Tim Easterby	2%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-31%	6th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org