Ayr 14:00 — Value Analysis

Racing tv.com/freetrial EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Monday 20 July 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes GTF 6.0f Class 4 3 runners
🏁 Result: Great Oak won (SP 1.33)
Model's most likely GREAT OAK 52% model chance · market 75%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
How the race unfolded

Great Oak justified strong market support at 1/3, winning by a short head. Star People (9/4) chased him home. Our model made him its top pick at 52%.

Why the model rates GREAT OAK top (52% chance)

Unproven, as is most of the field, leaving the yard's 7% strike with debutants as our primary metric; genuine uncertainty marks this race throughout.

  • ✓ Unraced - yard wins 7% with its first-time-out runners
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ No form to judge - genuine unknown

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
GREAT OAK ★ Top Rated
J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke
52%
75%
1.3
 -31% Winner
2
STAR PEOPLE
J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn
27%
31%
3.2
 -11% 2nd
—
MOLLISHA NR
J: Ben Robinson · T: Brian Ellison
20%
—
—
 — Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org