Cartmel 13:42 — Value Analysis

Cumbria Grand Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)

Monday 20 July 2026 · result below

Maiden GD 17.0f Class 4 9 runners

🏁 Result: Gambino won (SP 1.67)

Model's most likely SPEED FOR FUN 37% model chance · market 40%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: GAMBINO is the market favourite (1.7) but the model rates it only 29% vs the market's 58% — it may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

Gambino did what the market expected at 2/3, winning in a rout — 11 lengths back to the second. Speed For Fun (13/8) chased him home. Our model's top pick SPEED FOR FUN (37%) finished 2nd.

Why the model rates SPEED FOR FUN top (37% chance)

Both yard and jockey-trainer pairing come with impressive records—26% with first-timers and 30% together—he's proven in sharper company, though recent form and inconsistency temper an otherwise convincing profile.

✓ Yard readies first-timers - 26% with debutants
✓ This jockey-trainer pairing wins 30% together
✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs
✕ Less consistent than the best of these

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	SPEED FOR FUN ★ Top Rated J: Mr P W Mullins · T: W P Mullins	37%	40%	2.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-8%	2nd
2	GAMBINO J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton	29%	58%	1.7 ▼ Edge decreasing	-51%	Winner
3	MASEKELA J: Brian Hughes · T: James Moffatt	13%	11%	9.0	+20%	3rd
4	KIND OF KISS J: Jonathan England · T: Sam England	5%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-31%	5th
—	MANHATANE NR J: Leah Noreci(7) · T: James Moffatt	4%	2%	51.0	+91%	Withdrawn
5	ORDER ANOTHER ONE J: Ryan Mania · T: Dianne Sayer	4%	1%	67.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+151%	4th
6	STEPS IN TIME J: Joe Williamson · T: Philip Kirby	3%	1%	81.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+168%	—
7	DESTINATION UNKOWN J: James Best · T: Michael Chapman	3%	0%	251.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	7th
8	SCOPIC J: Richie McLernon · T: Ben Haslam	2%	0%	201.0 ▲ Edge increasing	⚠ market disagrees	6th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org