Musselburgh 14:30 — Value Analysis

Ocean Scotland Outdoor Advertising Nursery Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 21 July 2026 · result below

Nursery GTF 5.0f Class 6 3 runners
Model's most likely ENEMY ACTION 63% model chance · market —
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates ENEMY ACTION top (63% chance)

Consistently beats most rivals here and delivered a creditable third last time. The yard is quiet (8% winners in the last two months), though, and the five-furlong trip poses a question.

  • ✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
  • ✓ Ran well last time - finished 3rd
  • ✓ Has faced stronger opposition than most of these
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark
  • ✕ Yard quiet lately (8% in the last two months)

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ENEMY ACTION ★ Top Rated
J: Harry Russell · T: Ollie Pears
63%
—
—
 —
2
STRIPES OF GLORY
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
28%
—
—
 —
3
BEA KINDLY
J: Barry McHugh · T: Tracy Waggott
9%
—
—
 —

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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