Nottingham 14:45 — Value Analysis

£9 Racedays At Nottingham Racecourse "Hands And Heels" Apprentice Classified Stakes (Part Of Racing Excellence)

Tuesday 21 July 2026 · result below

Classified Stakes GTF 10.0f Class 6 6 runners

🏁 Result: Nymphaea won (SP 3.75)

Model's most likely NYMPHAEA 47% model chance · market 25%

★ Best value NYMPHAEA model 47% vs market 25% · +86%

How the race unfolded

Nymphaea (11/4) found just enough on the line, winning by a short head. Charencey (3/1) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Charencey the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.17 from 4.3 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model made him its top pick at 47%.

Why the model rates NYMPHAEA top (47% chance)

Ticks most boxes here - beats most rivals, ran well over the last three runs, yard in form (14% in the last two months), and the trip comes ideal. Unproven at this level, though, and the fifth last time raises a query.

✓ Consistently beats most of its rivals
✓ Ran well over its last three runs
✓ Today's trip looks ideal
✕ Unproven at this level

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	NYMPHAEA ★ Top Rated J: Jude Fernandes · T: Jennie Candlish	47%	25%	4.0	+86%	Winner
2	CHARENCEY J: Toby Moore · T: Ian Williams	18%	27%	3.8	-32%	2nd
3	MYNA J: Matthew Lloyd Slater · T: Tony Carroll	18%	23%	4.3	-21%	3rd
4	HELLO GARDA J: Finlay Bassett(7) · T: John Joseph Hanlon	8%	8%	12.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-8%	5th
5	SPACEAGE LOVE SONG J: Joe Bradnam · T: Michael Bell	8%	23%	4.3	-67%	6th
6	ARC AT HER J: Kyle McHugh · T: Dylan Cunha	2%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-65%	4th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org